What better time than the halfway point of the decade to pause and take stock of the ever-changing book world? We asked 18 experts and leaders from across the publishing industry to reflect on what’s changed for authors and publishers over the past five years and share their predictions about where they believe the industry will be in 2030. Here are their thoughts:
Prediction 1: Innovative new ways of consuming stories will emerge, while digital formats will continue to grow in popularity.
The decade began with the global onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which limited readers’ access to physical bookstores and accelerated a shift to digital formats — and readers show no signs of shedding these new habits.
2020 saw the most significant triple-digit rise in the growth of ebooks via the library markets since the beginning of the digital reading revolution. I’ve been tracking patterns of continued growth in both libraries as well as subscription-style services for ereading.
Mark Leslie Lefebvre, Communications and Outreach Director for Wide for the WinThe audiobook market has seen explosive growth, with audiobook sales increasing by double digits each year for 11 years in a row and experiencing a 9% increase in 2023. Digital formats and the rise of home studio narration, further encouraged by pandemic restrictions, have made audiobooks more affordable and easier to produce, encouraging publishers to expand their offerings.
Michele Cobb, Executive Director of the Audio Publishers AssociationExperts predict we’ll continue to see growth in these areas, with existing formats like audio dramas, serializations, and subscription models growing in popularity. However, they also expect to see new and innovative formats emerge thanks to increased access to reader data and new technologies.
The growing popularity of digital formats opens new possibilities in digital publishing as formats evolve alongside technology. Questions remain about how digital and print formats can complement each other.
Jolene Barto, Marketing Manager at SourcebooksBy 2030, I predict that AI-driven personalization will revolutionize publishing, transforming books from static content into dynamic, tailored experiences. This shift will not only redefine how stories are delivered but also broaden the very concept of what a ‘book’ can be, creating deeper, more individualized connections between readers and content.
Anne Fonteneau, Chief Sales Officer at Blackstone PublishingPrediction 2: Legal frameworks and licensing deals will develop to govern the use of generative AI as its adoption soars.
The latest seismic shift in publishing has the potential to transform every stage of the publishing process, but serious questions about the use of this technology still need to be answered.
Generative AI is both opportunity and challenge, and it’s a confusing time because most responses to it, right now, are highly emotional and morally charged. It’s hard to have a productive conversation about AI when people can’t get past the outrage, fear, or disgust — often all three at once.
I believe The Authors Guild is doing important work here in advocating for the rights of authors while accepting this technology isn’t going anywhere. Their latest statement makes plain that the licensed use of books for AI training must replace current unlicensed and uncontrolled use. That’s the starting point. Authors have the power to decide whether to license their own work and should make the best decision for themselves.
Jane Friedman, cofounder and editor of The Hot SheetDespite the strong feelings this technology engenders, particularly within the author community, many experts believe that AI tools of all kinds will likely become broadly adopted within the industry in the coming years.
We can expect to see legislative frameworks emerge to address current concerns. The conversation will shift from debating whether it’s appropriate to use AI to exploring how it can be utilized responsibly within a legal context. For this reason, it’s essential for authors and publishers to start experimenting with AI now, as their expertise in language and storytelling will shape how the technology evolves and is applied.
Danica Favorite, Community Manager at PublishDrivePrediction 3: AI-enabled translation and narration will open the door to more authors offering their books in new languages and formats.
One AI application that experts are optimistic about is faster and more cost-effective creation of alternate reading formats, which they hope will allow more authors to share their stories with new readers and markets than ever before.
While current models cannot yet produce perfect book translations, they significantly reduce the time and cost of traditional translation workflows. Over the next five years, experts predict that AI-driven translation systems, combined with advanced learning capabilities, will approach near-perfect book translations. This progress offers authors the chance to expand their readership globally, tap into emerging markets, and create multilingual editions with greater efficiency and precision.
Alex Newton, founder of K-lyticsHuman narration is still at the forefront of what audio publishers do, though the integration of AI and automation tools has made audiobook production easier, especially for post-production. Additionally, titles that would not previously have reached the expected sales threshold for human voice production can now be produced, allowing for greater accessibility of the titles in the audio format.
Michele Cobb, Executive Director of the Audio Publishers AssociationPrediction 4: New tools will remove barriers to publishing, ushering in new voices — and compounding existing discoverability challenges.
Similar to the introduction of Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP) in 2007, which opened the floodgates for thousands of writers to become published authors without needing to go through traditional publishing channels, the influx of new tools we’re seeing today could enable even more people with stories to tell to create and sell books.
As self-publishing democratized distribution, AI is democratizing creation. People with full-time jobs or responsibilities, health challenges and disabilities, neurodiversity, and more are able to write and publish at the speed the market now requires.
Elizabeth Ann West, author and founder of FutureFictionAcademy.comAI breaks down the last barrier to writing the book you want to write — whatever your barrier is: outlining, plot, writing craft, research, grammar, spelling, you name it. Every person on this planet has at least one or more stories to tell. We will see more of them, and just by the laws of probability, chances are high that we will see some fresh and good ones.
Alex Newton, founder of K-lyticsDiscoverability, which has been a challenge for years, will become even more difficult as more books hit the already crowded market.
It is imperative that we come at each new book with fresh eyes and new ways to reach readers. What worked on last month’s releases may not work again now. We have to be ready to try new tactics and keep pivoting if something doesn’t work.
Alexandra Nicolajsen, Director of Digital Sales and Marketing at Kensington PublishingPrediction 5: The need for a human touch will be more important than ever — for readers, authors, and publishers alike.
Experts predict that AI tools will allow for faster content generation, but they overwhelmingly agree that the ultimate need to authentically connect with readers won’t change. They believe that readers will continue to seek out quality books and experiences that satisfy and excite them.
Old-school authors will dip and then rise anew in popularity as people realize that the human touch is critical for a storyline that reaches their soul.
Craig Martelle, bestselling author and organizer of 20Booksto50k conferencesGood editorial judgment, support for authors, and the ability to curate and help consumers with content navigation will become even more paramount.
Amanda Ridout, founder and CEO of Boldwood BooksThe evolving tools will help us reach broader audiences while staying true to the core of what publishing is all about — connecting readers with great stories.
Anne Fonteneau, Chief Sales Officer at Blackstone PublishingIn a similar vein, one expert predicted that readers, authors, and others in the industry will seek out more spaces and experiences that offer genuine human connection.
People are craving authenticity. They’re craving groups and people who are thinking about them and their needs — who have an interest in making their lives easier. I don’t know exactly what it’s going to look like, but the more impersonal and untrustworthy online spaces get, the more likely people will turn to in-person spaces to find connection.
Becca Syme, author and creator of The Better-Faster AcademyPrediction 6: Author businesses will thrive thanks to efficiency enhancements from new technologies.
Authors, both traditionally and nontraditionally published, have increasingly taken on roles beyond writing.
Authors are not just storytellers — they’re expected to be content creators, brand managers, and community leaders.
Chelle Honiker, cofounder and publisher of Indie Author MagazineTechnical innovations promise to drastically reduce the load of repetitive operational tasks on authors’ plates, freeing up their time to create and manage robust publishing ventures.
AI agents will handle many publishing and marketing tasks, allowing single-author businesses to thrive by focusing more on creativity while efficiently managing operations.
Joanna Penn, New York Times and USA Today bestselling author and creator of The Creative PennI’m going to go out on a limb here and predict the rise of ‘authorpreneurship’ as a much more dominant model in publishing. Authors will increasingly act as CEOs of their own creative businesses, leveraging technology, direct sales, and global platforms to take control, and create impressive micro-publishing businesses.
Orna Ross, cofounder and director of the Alliance of Independent AuthorsPrediction 7: The popularity of hybrid publishing will rise, creating exciting new opportunities for both authors and publishers.
The past five years have seen an increase in hybrid publishing — authors working with publishers in nontraditional ways to publish and distribute their books.
Publishing has become more accessible to aspiring authors and having a traditional contract or agent is no longer the sole entry point for having your book published.
Hanna Myers, Head of Marketing at Joffe Book GroupWhile traditional publishers have always picked up successful self-published work, I’m seeing much more activity, as well as flexible deal terms, in the last few years. I believe it’s by far one of the best industry developments I’ve seen in recent years: good for authors, good for publishers, and possibly great for the future of the author-publisher relationship.
Jane Friedman, cofounder and editor of The Hot SheetIf this trend continues, publishers’ roles in the industry may evolve.
More traditional publishers will pivot toward offering services and expertise rather than acting as gatekeepers.
Orna Ross, cofounder and director of the Alliance of Independent AuthorsPrediction 8: Publishers and adjacent organizations will continue to actively fight against censorship.
The early 2020s brought a massive resurgence in book banning in the United States at the state level.
This hits particularly close to home to us at We Need Diverse Books because many of these book challenges target books with BIPOC and LGBTQ+ characters, which is deeply affecting the authors we serve. We’ve pivoted some of our programming so that we can fight these book bans head-on. Our Books Save Lives initiative was established to defend the freedom to read and support the creators, educators, and students who are impacted by censorship efforts.
Caroline Richmond, Executive Director at We Need Diverse BooksExperts predict that publishers themselves will step in to challenge book bans and ensure that readers across the country continue to have access to diverse literature.
This remains a critical issue that the Sourcebooks team and many other publishers are actively confronting. The publishing community must continue to challenge the censorship and erasure of certain voices and topics, remaining dedicated to supporting creators and readers whose stories can change lives.
Jolene Barto, Marketing Manager at SourcebooksPrediction 9: Authors who develop communities and provide their fans with unique experiences will be best equipped to build sustainable careers.
Authors have increasingly been building relationships with and offering value to readers outside of traditional sales channels.
The rise of direct sales, physical products, and in-person connection with readers will continue. Authors are now empowered to offer beautiful print editions, subscriptions, and in-person events, bringing readers closer and offering them greater value while also making a sustainable living. There are exciting times ahead!
Joanna Penn, New York Times and USA Today bestselling author and creator of The Creative PennAuthors who survive the tsunami of digital slush are likely going to be the ones who double down on their humanity, strengthening their author brand and their ability to do more than just deposit their titles into a growing sea of digital catalogs. The creation of unique ‘experiences’ for fans will become fundamental assets for authors to continue to grow and prosper.
Mark Leslie Lefebvre, Communications and Outreach Director for Wide for the WinFan-driven promotion has also proven itself to be a powerful engine for book sales, and demand generated by reader communities will continue to shape the industry in the years to come.
TikTok or more specifically BookTok seems to have redrawn the ‘brand author’ landscape. I have never seen a new batch of relatively unknown authors suddenly become massive sensations in the way we have all witnessed in the last couple of years. Authors that ticked over modestly on our backlists suddenly hit the bestseller lists. I would love to say this was publisher-organized but it is true word of mouth via social media.
Dominic Brendon, UK Sales Director at Simon and SchusterDiversity and inclusivity have emerged in a ‘grassroots up’ kind of way through self-publishing, with authors creating new genres, and marginalized voices speaking up. The growing emphasis on diverse voices means a richer, more varied literary landscape, which I love.
Orna Ross, cofounder and director of the Alliance of Independent AuthorsPublishing remains an ever-evolving industry, and no matter what changes lie ahead in the next five years and beyond, we at BookBub are excited to help authors, publishers, and all lovers of books navigate these exciting new developments! Do you agree with these predictions? What changes are you looking forward to in the coming years? Let us know in the comments or share on social media!
We’d like to extend a heartfelt thank you to our contributors, who shared their time and expertise to help us craft this post:
Alex Newton, founder of K-lytics
Alexandra Nicolajsen, Director of Digital Sales and Marketing at Kensington Publishing
Amanda Ridout, CEO and founder of Boldwood Books
Anne Fonteneau, Chief Sales Officer at Blackstone Publishing
Becca Syme, creator of The Better-Faster Academy
Caroline Richmond, Executive Director of We Need Diverse Books
Chelle Honiker, cofounder and publisher of Indie Author Magazine
Craig Martelle, bestselling author and organizer of 20Booksto50k conferences
Danica Favorite, Community Manager at PublishDrive
Dominic Brendon, UK Sales Director at Simon and Schuster
Elizabeth Ann West, founder of FutureFictionAcademy.com
Hanna Myers, Head of Marketing at Joffe Book Group
Jane Friedman, cofounder and editor of The Hot Sheet
Joanna Penn, bestselling author and creator of The Creative Penn blog
Jolene Barto, Marketing Manager at Sourcebooks
Mark Leslie Lefebvre, Communications and Outreach Director for Wide for the Win
Michele Cobb, Executive Director of the Audio Publishers Association
Orna Ross, cofounder and director of the Alliance of Independent Authors (ALLi)
The views and opinions expressed by the contributors to this post do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of BookBub.
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Click to tweet: A must-read for authors and publishers! This is an impressive look at the future of issues like AI, book discoverability, censorship, and how authors connect with readers: https://bit.ly/40MsRfR #writingcommunity #amwriting
Click to tweet: SO many great insights here — from experts including @thecreativepenn and @MarkLeslie, leaders at @diversebooks, @indieauthorzine, @IndieAuthorALLI, and others: https://bit.ly/40MsRfR
